How Accurate Is Conclave?

Pope Francis has died aged 88. ‘Death is not the end but the start of something,’ he recently wrote, prefacing a soon-to-be published book by Cardinal Angelo Scola, titled Waiting For A New Beginning: Reflections On Old Age. ‘It’s a new beginning […] because eternal life, which is something those who love life experience on Earth in their everyday occupations, is to start something that will never end. And it is precisely for this reason that it is a ‘new’ beginning, because we will experience something that we have never fully experienced: eternity.’ His death also heralds a new papacy: after a period of mourning, the College of Cardinals will elect a new pope. Film buffs will feel all clued up: 2024’s Oscar Best Picture nominee Conclave outlined exactly what happens when the pope dies, and how a new leader of the Catholic Church is selected. But how accurate is Peter Straughan’s film?

What Happens When The Pope Dies?

Immediately after the pope dies, some power is shifted to his camerlengo (chamberlain); at present, this is Cardinal Kevin Farrell. Cardinal Farrell is in charge of confirming the pope’s death with a doctor and acquiring a death certificate. An autopsy is not performed. Before his death, Pope Francis laid out his final wishes: to be buried in the Basilica of Saint Mary Major, a church in Rome, in a simple tomb bearing only the inscription ‘Franciscus’. The cost is to be covered by a benefactor. It’s all befitting of the pope’s incredibly humble reputation, with his final note offering his suffering to the Lord, in the hope that it may be exchanged for ‘peace in the world and for fraternity among peoples’.

Conclave centres on Cardinal Thomas Lawrence (Ralph Fiennes), who is dean of the College of Cardinals, the body of all cardinals in the Catholic Church. (Cardinals are senior members of the clergy in the Catholic Church, and are chosen and created by the pope himself, serving as his advisors and usually holding the title for life.) In the film, Cardinal Lawrence travels to the Vatican City after the pope dies of a heart attack, where the College of Cardinals convenes to elect his successor. Cardinal Lawrence is British, but the current real dean of the College of Cardinals is the Italian Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re, who has held the post since 2020. However, back in 2013, Cardinal Re was the senior cardinal-bishop in attendance at the papal conclave to elect Pope Benedict XVI’s successor, with Pope Francis ultimately being selected.

With Pope Francis now having passed, the real conclave is about to begin. At present, more than 250 cardinals from more than 90 countries are members of the college of cardinals, but only those aged under 80 years (135 cardinals) are eligible to elect the next pope. Travelling to the Vatican from all across the globe, it usually takes around 15 to 20 days for the cardinals to assemble – and that’s when the conclave can begin. Like Cardinal Lawrence, Cardinal Re will lead the proceedings.

How Accurate Is Conclave?

Conclave is accurate in its portrayal of the utmost secrecy the cardinals hold: they are squirreled away in a purpose-built hostel, St Martha’s House, and are permitted no contact with the outside world for the duration of the election process. Their phones are taken, and no newspapers, television, letters or messages of any kind are allowed. And just like Conclave, the process is not immune from politics, lobbying and factionalising.

The cardinals vote at the Sistine Chapel each morning and afternoon until a consensus is reached (a two thirds majority); the chapel itself is swept for listening devices before each session. The votes are then counted and, if there’s no majority, burned with an additive to make the resulting smoke black. This dark plume indicates to outsiders that a pope has not been chosen, and the conclave continues. After every seven ballots, there is a day’s break for prayer and reflection. Once the votes result in a majority, the new pope has been chosen. The candidate is asked if he accepts and, if so, by which name he wishes to be known. The voting cards are burned once more, this time with an additive to make the smoke white, letting outsiders know the cardinals have reached a decision.

In the film, there are four leading candidates for the papacy: progressive Aldo Bellini of the United States (Stanley Tucci); socially conservative Joshua Adeyemi of Nigeria (Lucian Msamati); moderate Joseph Tremblay of Canada (John Lithgow); and staunch traditionalist Goffredo Tedesco of Italy (Sergio Castellitto). As Cardinal Lawrence assesses their suitability for the papacy, secrets emerge rendering each unsuitable, and a new unexpected choice prevails.

Who Will Be The Next Pope?

It’s almost impossible to predict who the cardinals will vote in as the next pope. Very few predicted Jorge Mario Bergoglio would be elected as Pope Francis back in 2013, and it took five ballots to earn the majority. Austrian Cardinal Christoph Schönborn has said Bergoglio’s election followed a supernatural sign in the conclave – meaning it’s entirely confidential.

So who is a frontrunner in 2025? Speculation is brewing. Here are some of the frequent names:

• Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, 67: A progressive Filipino cardinal who has criticised the ‘harsh words’ used against LGBTQ+ people, unwed mothers and divorced couples, though he opposes abortion rights. The former archbishop of Manila, like Pope Francis, he places emphasis on helping the poor. He would be the first Filipino pope, and the first modern-day Asian pope.
• Cardinal Peter Turkson, 76: A front-runner in the 2013 election, won by Pope Francis, Turkson is the Ghanaian church leader and has held numerous senior roles across the Vatican. He is one of Africa’s most prominent leaders, and has led many peacekeeping missions. He would be the first Black pope in centuries, and has been vocal on issues spanning the climate crisis, poverty and economic justice, though he affirms the church’s traditional views on priesthood, marriage and homosexuality.
• Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70: An Italian cardinal and the Vatican’s Secretary of State. He was made a cardinal by Pope Francis in 2014 and believes in an ‘inclusive approach to peace’. Parolin is considered the ‘continuity candidate’.
• Cardinal Robert Provost, 69: This Chicago-born former Archbishop was close to Pope Francis, being brought to Rome to work as the Vatican’s prefect, vetting all nominations from bishops across the globe. He would be the first American pope, which has always been a controversial idea given the nation’s geo-political power.

Pope Francis’ Papacy

Pope Francis was pope for 12 years and one month, from his election in March 2013 to his death in April 2025. Born in 1936, he died aged 88 after suffering a stroke. Dying on Easter Monday, his final public appearance was a blessing on Easter Sunday.

When Is The Funeral?

Pope Francis’ funeral will be held on Saturday 26 April 2025, triggering a nine-day mourning period after which the conclave can begin. It will take place at 10am (9am BST) at St Peter’s Square, led by Cardinal Re, before the late pope is buried at the Basilica of Saint Mary Major in Rome, with dozens of world leaders and royals expected to attend, along with hundreds of thousands of Catholic worshippers. From Wednesday 22 April, mourners will be able to visit the late Pope Francis’ body in St Peter’s Basilica.

Where To Stream Conclave (2024)

In the UK, Conclave is currently available to rent across Apple TV, Prime Video and more. Some cinema screenings are still ongoing. Find your preferred way to watch here.